~ / data / macro / 2026-06-25-0830

$ macro show 2026-06-25-0830 # Thu 25 Jun 2026 · 08:30 ET · 2026-06-25 12:30 UTC · US session at release: extended

PCE (May) + GDP 2026Q1, third estimate + Jobless claims (week ending 2026-06-20)

PCEGDPJobless claims Released Thu 25 Jun 2026 · 08:30 ET. The official numbers, then how Hyperliquid's xyz perps moved from the last trade before the release, through the hour before the NYSE opened, to the open.

$ macro numbers 2026-06-25-0830 # first print as published · revisions shown separately

Official numbersno consensus forecast is official, so none is shown

Personal Income and Outlays · 2026-05

PCE prices m/m: +0.4%; prior +0.4%
Core PCE m/m: +0.3%; prior +0.3%
PCE prices y/y: 4.1%; prior 3.8%
Core PCE y/y: 3.4%; prior 3.3%

source: PCEPI, PCEPILFE · release

Gross Domestic Product · 2026Q1, third estimate

Real GDP, q/q annualised: +2.1%; prior +0.5%

source: A191RL1Q225SBEA · release

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report · 2026-06-20

Initial claims · week ending 2026-06-20: 215,000; prior 227,000
Continuing claims · week ending 2026-06-13: 1,821,000; prior 1,800,000

source: ICSA, CCSA · release

$ macro path 2026-06-25-0830 --from -10m --to +60m # 10-second points

Reactionbps from the last trade before 08:30 ET

SP500 · XYZ100 · GOLD

USD = EURUSD inverted · a gap = no valid price: no trade after the release yet, or no reference trade in the 2 minutes before it · hover for values

SP500XYZ100GOLD

market	−30 min	−5 min	−1 min	5 s	30 s	1 min	5 min	15 min	30 min	at open	max 60 s	fills 5m
SP500index	+2.2	+1.1	+1.2	+0.1	+14.9	+23.9	+20.5	+15.8	+17.6	+14.2	+27.1at 48.5 s	675
XYZ100index	−1.0	+2.3	+2.7	+1.0	+22.5	+37.2	+24.1	+23.5	+25.8	+11.7	+42.6at 46.6 s	797
GOLDcommodity	−8.5	−10.5	−0.5	+2.5	+54.4	+62.7	+26.1	+52.2	+68.7	+95.6	+69.2at 43.8 s	425
SILVERcommodity	−13.6	−10.0	−1.7	−20.3	+78.8	+133.2	+52.6	+124.5	+171.5	+192.4	+139.0at 44.9 s	5,633
CLcommodity	−16.4	−14.7	−5.1	+0.3	−9.7	−7.1	−14.3	−64.2	−53.7	−2.6	−14.7at 45.1 s	415
BRENTOILcommodity	−16.0	−14.5	−1.8	—	−7.5	−6.4	−12.6	−52.5	−47.6	+15.6	−13.2at 43.2 s	174
COPPERcommodity	−4.6	−5.4	−5.4	−0.7	+17.4	+30.5	+17.4	+12.0	+91.4	+61.4	+36.0at 43.9 s	66
EURfx · up = dollar down · no trade before the release	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	66
GBPfx · up = dollar down · no trade before the release	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1
JPYfx · up = dollar up	—	0.0	0.0	—	−1.9	−1.9	+0.6	−3.7	0.0	−1.2	−1.9at 28.4 s	1,086
TLTetf · no trade before the release	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0
SMHetf · no trade before the release	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	7

reference = the last trade before the release, no older than 2 minutes; before-release columns show where the market already was relative to it · after the release, a point is the last trade up to that time and only trades after the release count; "—" = no such trade · EUR and GBP are quoted in dollars per unit, JPY in yen per dollar, so "up" means a weaker dollar for EUR and GBP and a stronger one for JPY · max 60 s = the largest move on any trade in the first minute and when it happened · at open = last trade at 09:30:00 ET

every proxy · −10 to +60 min

SP500

XYZ100

GOLD

SILVER

CL

BRENTOIL

COPPER

JPY

$ macro path 2026-06-25-0830 --to open # one point per minute

From the release to the opendid the first move hold?

08:30 → 09:35 ET · bps from the last trade before the release

USD = EURUSD inverted · hover for values

SP500XYZ100GOLD

SP500: +20.5 bps 5 minutes after, +14.2 bps at the open · the first move held

$ macro stocks 2026-06-25-0830 --sort abs-5m # 37 US stocks and ETFs on xyz · sortable

Every US stock and ETFbps from the last trade before the release

5 min after

34 up · 1 flat · 2 down of 37

sort by

market	5 s	1 min	5 min	15 min	at open	fills 5m
MSTRus equity	+5.8	+104.5	+86.8	+84.4	−81.0	199
LITEus equity	+3.8	+58.4	+84.3	+134.1	+150.0	170
EWYetf	−1.0	+98.9	+77.2	+74.8	+96.5	268
CRWVus equity	—	+48.6	+74.3	+113.4	+29.5	29
COINus equity	+11.2	+73.0	+72.3	+50.0	−122.9	155
MUus equity	−2.4	+74.1	+69.2	+70.0	+50.5	898
RKLBus equity	—	+82.5	+66.0	+3.7	−83.9	142
HOODus equity	—	+83.8	+58.7	+24.0	+54.8	224
IBMus equity	—	+45.3	+54.1	−81.7	−115.2	56
ORCLus equity	—	+60.8	+51.3	+4.4	−6.3	39
SNDKus equity	+1.8	+80.1	+48.4	+32.1	+129.4	618
QCOMus equity	—	+106.7	+40.6	+33.7	+129.3	38
CRCLus equity	—	+83.0	+38.6	+16.9	−22.6	211
DELLus equity	—	+75.4	+37.8	−32.2	−277.1	20
HIMSus equity	0.0	+42.5	+31.9	+27.9	+138.5	23
ASMLus equity	—	+59.3	+29.9	+25.0	+99.5	9
INTCus equity	−6.4	+48.6	+29.3	+27.9	−1.4	292
ZMus equity	−0.2	+29.1	+29.1	−17.7	−5.5	14
BXus equity	—	+34.6	+28.4	+28.4	−45.2	7
TSMus equity	—	+39.3	+27.6	+63.9	−3.5	48
TSLAus equity	+24.4	+52.6	+26.6	+11.4	−22.9	273
EWZetf	—	—	+26.2	+18.8	+44.7	2
NVDAus equity	+3.0	+27.4	+23.9	+34.3	−40.8	242
MRVLus equity	0.0	+60.6	+23.5	+33.9	+82.0	307
EWJetf	—	+31.5	+20.2	+28.2	+7.1	18
NFLXus equity	—	—	+17.5	+11.5	+0.8	2
BABAus equity	—	+6.5	+17.4	+11.0	+55.8	8
STRCus equity	0.0	0.0	+14.8	+17.2	−67.7	10
AMZNus equity	—	+20.6	+11.2	+11.2	−35.2	134
BBus equity	−0.5	+0.1	−10.4	−5.4	+380.9	160
AAPLus equity	—	+14.1	+8.9	−6.9	−129.8	46
XLEetf	—	+15.2	+8.8	+3.8	−3.4	17
ARMus equity	−0.5	+64.1	+7.8	+3.4	−116.9	155
GOOGLus equity	0.0	+13.5	+7.6	−21.7	−131.3	52
MSFTus equity	—	+11.5	+5.8	−16.8	−25.0	55
METAus equity	—	+24.1	−3.4	−27.5	−8.6	57
NOWus equity	—	+18.1	−0.1	−37.9	−38.7	41

every live US-equity and ETF market on xyz with a trade in the 2 minutes before the release · default order = largest 5-minute move either way · thin markets can show large moves on one or two fills; check the fill count · flat = under 1 bp

$ macro ls --type pce # earlier releases of the same type

Earlier PCE5 minutes after · bps

date	SP500	XYZ100	GOLD	USD
2026-05-28	—	—	—	—
2026-04-30	—	—	—	—
2026-04-09	—	—	—	—
2026-03-13	—	—	—	—
2026-02-20	—	—	—	—
2026-01-22	—	—	—	—

USD = EURUSD inverted · raw: /api/xyz/macro/event/2026-06-25-0830.json · definitions in methodology