~ / data / macro / 2026-07-02-0830

$ macro show 2026-07-02-0830 # Thu 2 Jul 2026 · 08:30 ET · 2026-07-02 12:30 UTC · US session at release: extended

Jobs report (June) + Jobless claims (week ending 2026-06-27)

Jobs reportJobless claims Released Thu 2 Jul 2026 · 08:30 ET. The official numbers, then how Hyperliquid's xyz perps moved from the last trade before the release, through the hour before the NYSE opened, to the open.

$ macro numbers 2026-07-02-0830 # first print as published · revisions shown separately

Official numbersno consensus forecast is official, so none is shown

Employment Situation · 2026-06

Nonfarm payrolls: +57k; prior +129k, first printed +172k
Unemployment rate: 4.2%; prior 4.3%
Avg hourly earnings m/m: +0.35%; prior +0.27%
Prior two months revised: −74k

source: PAYEMS, UNRATE, CES0500000003 · release

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report · 2026-06-27

Initial claims · week ending 2026-06-27: 215,000; prior 216,000
Continuing claims · week ending 2026-06-20: 1,814,000; prior 1,812,000

source: ICSA, CCSA · release

$ macro path 2026-07-02-0830 --from -10m --to +60m # 10-second points

Reactionbps from the last trade before 08:30 ET

SP500 · XYZ100 · GOLD · USD

USD = EURUSD inverted · a gap = no valid price: no trade after the release yet, or no reference trade in the 2 minutes before it · hover for values

SP500XYZ100GOLDUSD

market	−30 min	−5 min	−1 min	5 s	30 s	1 min	5 min	15 min	30 min	at open	max 60 s	fills 5m
SP500index	−13.1	−2.1	−6.1	+3.1	+11.6	+22.0	+18.9	+19.1	+8.5	+1.6	+22.0at 56.7 s	878
XYZ100index	−45.1	−6.4	−7.0	+3.7	+18.7	+33.4	+30.4	+20.7	+0.3	−30.1	+34.4at 57.1 s	1,325
GOLDcommodity	+3.4	+2.7	+0.5	+38.6	+87.0	+129.1	+151.4	+161.5	+128.1	+114.1	+141.6at 57.1 s	1,667
SILVERcommodity	−0.2	+2.0	−7.7	+69.5	+171.4	+274.2	+275.5	+272.2	+224.7	+189.8	+296.5at 47.6 s	3,955
CLcommodity	−24.3	−19.9	−4.6	−2.4	−3.7	+1.2	−0.3	−9.4	+36.5	+58.2	−11.4at 2.5 s	262
BRENTOILcommodity	−16.0	−20.6	−3.0	−1.7	−1.8	−1.0	−0.9	−11.3	+23.0	+51.9	−10.6at 2.5 s	120
COPPERcommodity	—	+1.3	+1.5	+21.8	+94.4	+107.1	+76.0	+87.1	+70.0	+86.8	+117.9at 40.8 s	134
EURfx · up = dollar down	—	—	—	+2.6	+24.6	+28.9	+46.5	+49.1	+44.7	+35.9	+35.1at 42.2 s	110
GBPfx · up = dollar down · no trade before the release	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	20
JPYfx · up = dollar up	−5.6	—	0.0	−6.2	−30.3	−26.6	−53.3	−46.4	−32.8	−27.2	−40.9at 45.4 s	349
TLTetf · no trade before the release	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0
SMHetf	−80.4	−0.5	0.0	—	+69.0	+66.9	+82.9	+68.4	+27.8	−54.8	+69.0at 24.2 s	47

reference = the last trade before the release, no older than 2 minutes; before-release columns show where the market already was relative to it · after the release, a point is the last trade up to that time and only trades after the release count; "—" = no such trade · EUR and GBP are quoted in dollars per unit, JPY in yen per dollar, so "up" means a weaker dollar for EUR and GBP and a stronger one for JPY · max 60 s = the largest move on any trade in the first minute and when it happened · at open = last trade at 09:30:00 ET

every proxy · −10 to +60 min

SP500

XYZ100

GOLD

SILVER

CL

BRENTOIL

COPPER

EUR

JPY

SMH

$ macro path 2026-07-02-0830 --to open # one point per minute

From the release to the opendid the first move hold?

08:30 → 09:35 ET · bps from the last trade before the release

USD = EURUSD inverted · hover for values

SP500XYZ100GOLDUSD

SP500: +18.9 bps 5 minutes after, +1.6 bps at the open · the first move held

$ macro stocks 2026-07-02-0830 --sort abs-5m # 43 US stocks and ETFs on xyz · sortable

Every US stock and ETFbps from the last trade before the release

5 min after

37 up · 2 flat · 4 down of 43

sort by

market	5 s	1 min	5 min	15 min	at open	fills 5m
EWYetf	+6.5	+105.7	+162.1	+103.5	+4.3	801
SNDKus equity	−4.3	+97.6	+140.5	+18.4	−118.3	1,220
WDCus equity	—	+114.7	+125.8	+27.1	−125.8	109
ASMLus equity	—	+65.7	+116.9	+102.9	−74.3	26
INTCus equity	−4.6	+84.4	+99.8	+61.9	−3.1	151
MUus equity	−12.3	+77.3	+94.2	−65.0	−180.0	1,550
RKLBus equity	+23.6	+67.9	+85.6	+65.9	−24.6	49
NOKus equity	—	+60.1	+85.1	+109.4	−92.2	21
SMHetf	—	+66.9	+82.9	+68.4	−54.8	47
TSMus equity	—	+61.6	+81.0	+98.9	+96.2	32
DELLus equity	—	+36.5	+70.4	+64.2	−144.4	14
USARus equity	—	+71.9	+69.0	+124.5	+2.0	16
NOWus equity	—	—	+65.4	+72.2	+143.4	1
CRWVus equity	—	+108.8	+63.6	+93.9	−83.6	44
QCOMus equity	—	+53.2	+57.0	+80.6	−25.8	29
AVGOus equity	—	+65.0	+56.0	+68.5	−98.5	18
RIVNus equity	+53.0	+119.3	+51.3	+161.1	+21.7	193
MRVLus equity	−10.2	+82.7	+51.0	+64.8	−165.0	266
COINus equity	+23.7	+53.5	+49.8	+21.3	+29.2	103
BEus equity	+12.6	+64.8	+44.6	−30.3	−110.4	23
HIMSus equity	—	+27.8	+44.4	+29.7	+55.3	19
AMDus equity	−2.7	+73.0	+43.8	+20.1	−166.9	235
ARMus equity	—	+84.2	+34.6	+46.7	−42.0	37
TSLAus equity	+1.6	+28.9	+33.3	+20.3	−29.3	239
CRCLus equity	+8.9	+31.0	+29.6	+8.4	−146.8	309
HOODus equity	+15.2	+46.4	+29.5	+23.2	+66.9	72
AAPLus equity	+2.7	+17.7	+27.5	+21.4	−4.4	40
NVDAus equity	+6.1	+35.9	+25.8	+24.8	−30.8	142
PLTRus equity	—	+17.1	−25.6	+47.4	0.0	48
BABAus equity	+1.5	+18.1	+24.5	+51.9	+66.5	51
BBus equity	—	+5.5	+22.1	+159.0	+189.0	33
NBISus equity	−10.1	+54.5	−20.5	−78.4	−223.1	395
DKNGus equity	—	+15.5	−19.8	−19.8	+11.6	2
GOOGLus equity	−5.6	+9.8	+18.7	+22.3	+31.8	105
LLYus equity	—	—	+18.4	+26.8	+27.7	2
ORCLus equity	−2.1	+18.8	−12.5	−15.3	−55.6	34
MSTRus equity	+42.9	+73.6	+11.7	+5.8	+87.1	267
AMZNus equity	+2.1	+14.9	+11.2	+23.6	+20.3	29
METAus equity	−0.3	+14.9	+7.9	+14.9	+45.1	205
IBMus equity	+5.0	+25.5	+2.1	+21.2	+69.4	11
NFLXus equity	—	+1.9	+1.9	+19.4	+129.8	17
MSFTus equity	+5.5	+11.5	−0.3	+13.9	+57.3	164
STRCus equity	—	0.0	+0.1	+6.3	+45.8	14

every live US-equity and ETF market on xyz with a trade in the 2 minutes before the release · default order = largest 5-minute move either way · thin markets can show large moves on one or two fills; check the fill count · flat = under 1 bp

$ macro ls --type nfp # earlier releases of the same type

Earlier Jobs report5 minutes after · bps

date	SP500	XYZ100	GOLD	USD
2026-06-05	—	—	—	—
2026-05-08	—	—	—	—
2026-04-03	—	—	—	—
2026-03-06	—	—	—	—
2026-02-11	—	—	—	—
2026-01-09	—	—	—	—

USD = EURUSD inverted · raw: /api/xyz/macro/event/2026-07-02-0830.json · definitions in methodology