~ / data / macro / 2026-07-16-0830

$ macro show 2026-07-16-0830 # Thu 16 Jul 2026 · 08:30 ET · 2026-07-16 12:30 UTC · US session at release: extended

Jobless claims (week ending 2026-07-11)

Jobless claims Released Thu 16 Jul 2026 · 08:30 ET. The official numbers, then how Hyperliquid's xyz perps moved from the last trade before the release, through the hour before the NYSE opened, to the open.

$ macro numbers 2026-07-16-0830 # first print as published · revisions shown separately

Official numbersno consensus forecast is official, so none is shown

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report · 2026-07-11

Initial claims · week ending 2026-07-11: 208,000; prior 216,000 · now revised to 209,000
Continuing claims · week ending 2026-07-04: 1,805,000; prior 1,821,000 · now revised to 1,798,000

source: ICSA, CCSA · release

$ macro path 2026-07-16-0830 --from -10m --to +60m # 10-second points

Reactionbps from the last trade before 08:30 ET

SP500 · XYZ100 · GOLD

USD = EURUSD inverted · a gap = no valid price: no trade after the release yet, or no reference trade in the 2 minutes before it · hover for values

SP500XYZ100GOLD

market	−30 min	−5 min	−1 min	5 s	30 s	1 min	5 min	15 min	30 min	at open	max 60 s	fills 5m
SP500index	+11.8	−3.3	−1.6	+1.9	+0.5	+0.9	+0.8	−7.3	−1.6	+10.5	+2.5at 3.7 s	138
XYZ100index	+19.2	−6.5	−3.4	+1.7	+1.7	+2.4	+1.4	−11.3	−7.5	+21.2	−4.5at 17.2 s	424
GOLDcommodity	+34.3	−3.5	0.0	+2.7	+8.2	+12.7	−3.0	−50.4	−75.5	−40.5	+13.4at 33.5 s	115
SILVERcommodity	+44.2	−14.3	−5.0	−8.8	+6.2	+25.3	+10.3	−68.7	−109.0	−23.7	+25.7at 53.7 s	1,007
CLcommodity	−88.5	−4.4	+9.0	+1.5	−10.3	−6.0	+8.6	+28.5	+7.3	−23.5	−14.0at 32.7 s	877
BRENTOILcommodity	−91.0	−2.5	+7.7	+1.2	−8.5	−6.9	−4.9	+28.2	+14.7	−18.3	−10.7at 31.5 s	285
COPPERcommodity	+8.8	+8.8	+1.7	−0.8	+1.9	+15.8	+5.0	−8.9	−32.3	+25.2	+17.5at 47.6 s	18
EURfx · up = dollar down · no trade before the release	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3
GBPfx · up = dollar down · no trade before the release	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2
JPYfx · up = dollar up · no trade before the release	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0
TLTetf · no trade before the release	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0
SMHetf · no trade before the release	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0

reference = the last trade before the release, no older than 2 minutes; before-release columns show where the market already was relative to it · after the release, a point is the last trade up to that time and only trades after the release count; "—" = no such trade · EUR and GBP are quoted in dollars per unit, JPY in yen per dollar, so "up" means a weaker dollar for EUR and GBP and a stronger one for JPY · max 60 s = the largest move on any trade in the first minute and when it happened · at open = last trade at 09:30:00 ET

every proxy · −10 to +60 min

SP500

XYZ100

GOLD

SILVER

CL

BRENTOIL

COPPER

$ macro path 2026-07-16-0830 --to open # one point per minute

From the release to the opendid the first move hold?

08:30 → 09:35 ET · bps from the last trade before the release

USD = EURUSD inverted · hover for values

SP500XYZ100GOLD

SP500: +0.8 bps 5 minutes after, +10.5 bps at the open · the 5-minute move was under 3 bps, too small to call

$ macro stocks 2026-07-16-0830 --sort abs-5m # 33 US stocks and ETFs on xyz · sortable

Every US stock and ETFbps from the last trade before the release

5 min after

16 up · 5 flat · 12 down of 33

sort by

market	5 s	1 min	5 min	15 min	at open	fills 5m
BIRDus equity	—	+41.0	−123.0	+20.3	−43.7	29
BEus equity	—	−13.3	−61.6	−130.1	−196.8	12
TSMus equity	—	+13.6	+29.8	−24.3	+77.9	47
CRCLus equity	−2.7	−11.3	+25.5	−26.3	+103.4	77
NOKus equity	—	+21.3	−19.5	−85.3	−12.0	49
NBISus equity	—	+9.4	−17.8	−13.1	−11.5	17
NVDAus equity	+1.4	−1.4	−16.2	−25.3	+45.8	135
BBus equity	+15.4	+15.4	+15.4	−32.7	+83.5	4
SNDKus equity	+6.0	+12.6	−14.0	−73.9	+177.7	751
ORCLus equity	+12.8	+12.8	+12.8	−16.6	−83.6	10
MUus equity	+12.5	+13.5	−10.5	−72.2	+85.4	667
PLTRus equity	—	−6.0	−9.7	−47.1	−43.3	35
IBMus equity	—	+1.9	+8.6	−46.6	−70.8	15
INTCus equity	+2.0	0.0	−8.0	−38.1	+110.0	122
EWYetf	+1.8	+6.0	−7.2	−92.2	+52.5	334
AAPLus equity	+1.2	+0.9	+6.4	+18.0	−1.5	30
HOODus equity	—	—	+6.2	−44.0	+32.5	10
RKLBus equity	—	+11.8	+6.2	−53.2	−47.8	17
LLYus equity	—	+6.0	+6.0	+40.5	+46.5	7
MSFTus equity	+3.3	+3.8	+5.0	+11.8	−14.5	86
TSLAus equity	+3.6	+2.5	+4.6	+1.3	−2.3	81
COINus equity	−0.6	0.0	−4.3	−40.3	+92.2	12
LITEus equity	+8.3	+17.1	+3.6	−45.9	+87.6	19
MSTRus equity	—	—	+2.5	−76.0	+25.5	7
AMDus equity	—	+5.1	−2.0	−54.7	−41.4	18
MRVLus equity	—	+16.1	+2.0	−46.9	+102.8	57
AMZNus equity	—	—	+1.6	−21.5	−31.2	47
ARMus equity	—	—	+1.5	−46.5	+145.1	5
BABAus equity	0.0	+1.7	+0.8	−18.6	+0.8	101
GOOGLus equity	+3.5	+9.4	+0.8	−27.8	−8.0	141
METAus equity	—	−0.3	−0.4	−14.4	−34.7	109
DELLus equity	—	—	0.0	−5.2	+112.9	7
NFLXus equity	0.0	0.0	0.0	+1.5	−27.6	2

every live US-equity and ETF market on xyz with a trade in the 2 minutes before the release · default order = largest 5-minute move either way · thin markets can show large moves on one or two fills; check the fill count · flat = under 1 bp

$ macro ls --type claims # earlier releases of the same type

Earlier Jobless claims5 minutes after · bps

date	SP500	XYZ100	GOLD	USD
2026-07-09	+2.9	+5.8	+22.1	—
2026-06-18	−0.3	−3.0	−3.8	—
2026-06-04	—	—	—	—
2026-05-21	—	—	—	—
2026-05-14	—	—	—	—
2026-05-07	—	—	—	—
2026-04-23	—	—	—	—
2026-04-16	—	—	—	—
2026-04-02	—	—	—	—
2026-03-26	—	—	—	—
2026-03-19	—	—	—	—
2026-03-12	—	—	—	—

USD = EURUSD inverted · raw: /api/xyz/macro/event/2026-07-16-0830.json · definitions in methodology