~ / data / macro / 2026-07-30-0830

$ macro show 2026-07-30-0830 # Thu 30 Jul 2026 · 08:30 ET · 2026-07-30 12:30 UTC · US session at release: extended

PCE (June) + GDP 2026Q2, advance estimate + Jobless claims (week ending 2026-07-25)

PCEGDPJobless claims Released Thu 30 Jul 2026 · 08:30 ET. The official numbers, then how Hyperliquid's xyz perps moved from the last trade before the release, through the hour before the NYSE opened, to the open.

$ macro numbers 2026-07-30-0830 # first print as published · revisions shown separately

Official numbersno consensus forecast is official, so none is shown

Personal Income and Outlays · 2026-06

PCE prices m/m: −0.1%; prior +0.5%
Core PCE m/m: +0.1%; prior +0.3%
PCE prices y/y: 3.7%; prior 4.1% · now revised to 3.5%
Core PCE y/y: 3.3%; prior 3.4% · now revised to 3.0%

source: PCEPI, PCEPILFE · release

Gross Domestic Product · 2026Q2, advance estimate

Real GDP, q/q annualised: +1.5%; prior +2.1% · now revised to +2.2%

source: A191RL1Q225SBEA · release

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report · 2026-07-25

Initial claims · week ending 2026-07-25: 197,000; prior 188,000 · now revised to 198,000
Continuing claims · week ending 2026-07-18: 1,782,000; prior 1,789,000 · now revised to 1,777,000

source: ICSA, CCSA · release

$ macro path 2026-07-30-0830 --from -10m --to +60m # 10-second points

Reactionbps from the last trade before 08:30 ET

SP500 · XYZ100 · GOLD

USD = EURUSD inverted · a gap = no valid price: no trade after the release yet, or no reference trade in the 2 minutes before it · hover for values

SP500XYZ100GOLD

market	−30 min	−5 min	−1 min	5 s	30 s	1 min	5 min	15 min	30 min	at open	max 60 s	fills 5m
SP500index	−0.7	+2.3	−4.6	+2.3	+3.0	+3.5	−3.5	−4.8	+0.1	+19.1	+6.8at 11.0 s	420
XYZ100index	+0.7	+6.5	−0.4	+11.6	+11.6	+13.4	0.0	+15.2	+27.2	+50.4	+17.0at 19.6 s	941
GOLDcommodity	−3.2	−4.7	+4.4	+3.4	+15.4	+5.4	−10.5	−1.7	−19.4	+1.5	+18.1at 21.2 s	422
SILVERcommodity	−4.6	−8.8	+8.3	+16.3	+12.5	−1.2	−28.2	−29.4	−22.5	−35.2	+27.0at 10.9 s	846
CLcommodity	−82.6	−41.8	−0.5	−6.9	−10.9	−12.8	−34.8	−56.0	+25.2	−92.0	−17.3at 50.5 s	416
BRENTOILcommodity	−44.2	−26.7	+1.6	−3.4	−10.3	−10.5	−26.3	−47.5	+10.2	−87.4	−14.7at 31.2 s	160
COPPERcommodity	−10.2	−5.1	0.0	—	+5.0	−2.0	−12.8	+1.4	−25.5	−35.7	+39.5at 12.0 s	82
EURfx · up = dollar down · no trade before the release	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	19
GBPfx · up = dollar down · no trade before the release	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1
JPYfx · up = dollar up · no trade before the release	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	6
TLTetf · no trade before the release	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0
SMHetf	−43.3	−7.7	−0.4	—	+1.2	+31.4	+31.2	+80.1	+84.0	+175.2	+31.4at 56.6 s	32

reference = the last trade before the release, no older than 2 minutes; before-release columns show where the market already was relative to it · after the release, a point is the last trade up to that time and only trades after the release count; "—" = no such trade · EUR and GBP are quoted in dollars per unit, JPY in yen per dollar, so "up" means a weaker dollar for EUR and GBP and a stronger one for JPY · max 60 s = the largest move on any trade in the first minute and when it happened · at open = last trade at 09:30:00 ET

every proxy · −10 to +60 min

SP500

XYZ100

GOLD

SILVER

CL

BRENTOIL

COPPER

SMH

$ macro path 2026-07-30-0830 --to open # one point per minute

From the release to the opendid the first move hold?

08:30 → 09:35 ET · bps from the last trade before the release

USD = EURUSD inverted · hover for values

SP500XYZ100GOLD

SP500: −3.5 bps 5 minutes after, +19.1 bps at the open · the first move did not hold

$ macro stocks 2026-07-30-0830 --sort abs-5m # 43 US stocks and ETFs on xyz · sortable

Every US stock and ETFbps from the last trade before the release

5 min after

23 up · 0 flat · 17 down of 40

sort by

market	5 s	1 min	5 min	15 min	at open	fills 5m
QCOMus equity	+26.5	+119.4	+145.2	+196.1	−64.5	51
NBISus equity	+3.1	+0.6	−66.3	−34.4	+558.5	277
ARMus equity	+41.3	+135.9	+61.8	+187.0	+631.5	189
AMATus equity	+24.6	+70.7	+54.4	+118.7	+322.4	26
WDCus equity	—	+56.7	+52.6	+122.8	+406.1	109
MUus equity	+22.5	+52.4	+49.3	+190.7	+312.2	2,091
MRVLus equity	+24.5	+28.0	+46.6	+114.2	+388.7	305
SNDKus equity	+13.9	+32.3	+37.9	+146.9	+496.2	2,180
USARus equity	—	+37.8	+37.8	+25.2	+197.8	13
LITEus equity	+26.6	+77.0	+35.1	+148.6	+398.4	10
SMHetf	—	+31.4	+31.2	+80.1	+175.2	32
TSLAus equity	+2.3	+34.6	+30.6	+32.6	−19.1	615
AMDus equity	+19.1	+47.5	+26.2	+73.2	+202.7	304
ASMLus equity	+5.6	+30.4	+26.1	+67.0	+219.6	53
MSFTus equity	—	−20.1	−26.0	−20.8	+253.9	106
GOOGLus equity	+6.9	+5.4	−25.7	−11.1	−2.1	200
MSTRus equity	+10.4	+2.3	−25.1	−41.7	−107.3	235
TSMus equity	+4.1	+22.8	+24.3	+62.1	+148.9	27
EWYetf	+16.2	+37.0	+19.5	+62.0	+255.2	205
AAPLus equity	+7.2	+14.0	−17.9	−17.6	−76.6	152
NOKus equity	0.0	+32.8	−17.8	+60.4	+313.0	7
AMZNus equity	+5.6	+9.4	−17.6	+0.9	+15.4	173
INTCus equity	+3.8	+34.8	+17.6	+47.0	+162.0	159
AVGOus equity	—	+15.1	+17.2	+49.8	+62.2	5
PLTRus equity	0.0	−11.5	−16.4	−20.5	−86.8	43
BBus equity	—	+33.8	+15.9	+136.1	+243.9	47
CRWVus equity	−1.4	+12.8	−15.9	+80.7	+364.5	44
METAus equity	+1.7	+7.0	−13.5	+38.5	−25.8	467
DELLus equity	−6.0	+1.8	+13.1	+76.7	+113.0	14
COINus equity	—	+38.2	+9.9	+1.9	−55.5	52
EBAYus equity	—	+6.1	+6.1	+6.1	−0.9	4
NFLXus equity	—	—	−5.7	−13.2	−107.1	16
NVDAus equity	+6.2	+19.6	+4.1	+7.7	−13.9	237
RKLBus equity	+5.9	+25.7	−4.0	+62.7	+54.1	64
ORCLus equity	+12.4	+9.1	−3.3	+5.0	+179.0	38
EWZetf	—	—	−2.8	−2.8	+10.6	2
IBMus equity	—	+7.6	−2.7	−31.8	−45.6	19
CRCLus equity	+2.2	+8.8	+1.9	−2.1	−142.7	105
NOWus equity	—	—	−1.8	−102.5	−157.7	4
HOODus equity	+7.0	+11.5	−1.3	+45.9	+64.7	115
GMEus equity	—	—	—	−5.0	−22.0	0
URNMetf	—	—	—	+20.9	+30.3	0
ZMus equity	—	—	—	−33.5	−81.5	0

every live US-equity and ETF market on xyz with a trade in the 2 minutes before the release · default order = largest 5-minute move either way · thin markets can show large moves on one or two fills; check the fill count · flat = under 1 bp

$ macro ls --type pce # earlier releases of the same type

Earlier PCE5 minutes after · bps

date	SP500	XYZ100	GOLD	USD
2026-06-25	+20.5	+24.1	+26.1	—
2026-05-28	—	—	—	—
2026-04-30	—	—	—	—
2026-04-09	—	—	—	—
2026-03-13	—	—	—	—
2026-02-20	—	—	—	—
2026-01-22	—	—	—	—

USD = EURUSD inverted · raw: /api/xyz/macro/event/2026-07-30-0830.json · definitions in methodology